Umehluko Phakathi Kokuphindaphinda Nokusheshisa Kwezomnotho

Ezomnotho, njengomkhakha, zithuthukiswa ngamamodeli ahlukahlukene, amathuluzi, nemiqondo esiza osomnotho baqonde ukusebenza okuyinkimbinkimbi komnotho. Imiqondo emibili ebalulekile iwukuphindaphinda kanye nomgomo wokusheshisa. Nakuba kokubili kuhlobene nokukhula komnotho kanye nokuguquguquka, kumelela ukuguquguquka nezindlela ezahlukene emnothweni. Ukuqonda izindima zabo, umehluko, kanye nokusebenzelana kubalulekile ukuze ubambe ispectrum ephelele yethiyori yezomnotho kanye nokwakhiwa kwenqubomgomo.

Le ndatshana icubungula ezimisweni zokuphindaphinda ukusheshisa, echaza izincazelo zazo ngazinye, izindlela, nomehluko, kuyilapho ihlola ukuthi zisebenzisana kanjani ukuze zibe nomthelela emsebenzini wezomnotho.

Siyini Isiphindaphinda?

Imultiplierconcept isuka kuKeynesian economics, egcizelela indima yesidingo esihlanganisiwe ekunqumeni umphumela womnotho uwonke. Isiphindaphinda sichaza ukuthi uguquko lwasekuqaleni ekusetshenzisweni kwemali (okufana nokusetshenziswa kukahulumeni noma ukutshalwa kwezimali) lungaba nomthelela owenziwe kanjani ekuphumeni okuphelele kwezomnotho. Empeleni, kukhombisa ukuthi ukwenyuka okuncane kwezindleko ezizimele kungaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwemali engenayo kanye nomphumela wezwe.

Inqubo yokuphindaphinda isebenza ngezigaba ezilandelanayo zokusetshenziswa kwemali. Nansi indlela esebenza ngayo esibonelweni esenziwe lula:

• Umjovo Wokuqala: Ake sithi uhulumeni unquma ukusebenzisa u$100 wezigidi ekwakheni ingqalasizinda. Lezi zindleko zokuqala ziwumjovo oqala inqubo yokuphindaphinda.
• Ukunyuka Kwemali Engenayo: Izinkampani ezithola lezi zinkontileka zika$100 wezigidi zizokhokha amaholo futhi zithenge izinto zokwakha, okwandisa imali engenayo yabasebenzi nabahlinzeki.
• Ukusetshenziswa Nokuchithwa Kwemali: Abasebenzi nabahlinzeki, bona, basebenzisa ingxenye yemali yabo eyengeziwe ezimpahleni nasezinkonzweni, bekhulisa imali engenayo kwabanye emnothweni. Ingxenye yemali engenayo esetshenziswa ezimpahleni nasezinkonzweni zasekhaya ibizwa ngokuthi imarginal propensity to consume (MPC).
• Imijikelezo Ephindaphindwayo:Le nqubo iyaziphinda emizuliswaneni elandelanayo, umzuliswano ngamunye oholela ekunyukeni okwengeziwe kwemali engenayo kanye nezindleko. Inani lokukhuphuka kwemali engenayo liyancipha ngomzuliswano ngamunye ngenxa yokonga kanye nempahla ethengwayo, kodwa umphumela okhulayo uwukunyuka okukhulu kweholo lezwe kunomjovo wokuqala.

Ifomula yesiphindaphindi inikezwe ngu:

Multiplier = 1 / (1 MPC)

Lapho iMPCis imarginal propensity okufanele isetshenziswe. IMPC ephakeme isho ukuphindaphinda okukhulu, njengoba kusetshenziswa imali eningi yedola ngalinye elengeziwe kunokuba ilondolozwe.

• IInvestment Multiplier: Ibhekisela emthelela wokunyuka kokuqala kokutshalwa kwezimali emalini engenayo isiyonke.
• Isiphindaphinda Semali Sikahulumeni:Isho umthelela wokwenyuka kwezindleko zikahulumeni ekuphumeni kwawo wonke umnotho.
• Isiphindaphinda Sentela:Ikala umthelela woshintsho ezintela ekuphumeni kwezomnotho. Ukwehliswa kwentela kukhulisa imali engenayo etholakalayo, okuholela ekusetshenzisweni okuphezulu nasekuphumeni, nakuba isiphindaphindi sentela ngokuvamile siba sincane kunosiphindaphindayo wokusebenzisa imali.

Ukuphindaphinda kubalulekile ekuqondeni ukuthi izinqubomgomo zezomnotho, ikakhulukazi izinqubomgomo zezimali (ezifana noshintsho ekusetshenzisweni kwemali kukahulumeni noma intela), zikuthinta kanjani ukufunwa nokuphumayo okuhlanganisiwe. Ngezikhathi zokuwohloka komnotho noma ukuwohloka komnotho, ohulumeni bavame ukusebenzisa umphumela wokuphindaphinda ukuze bagqugquzele isidingo nokuthuthukisa ukukhula komnotho.

Siyini iAccelerator?

Umgomo weTheaccelerator umqondo wezomnotho ogxile ebudlelwaneni obuphakathi kokutshalwa kwezimali kanye noshintsho kokuphumayo noma imali engenayo. Iphakamisa ukuthi amazinga okutshalwa kwezimali awathonywa nje kuphela izinga eliphelele lesidingo, kodwa okubaluleke nakakhuluizinga loshintshoekufunwani. Ithiyori yeaccelerator ibeka ukuthi lapho isidingo sezimpahla namasevisi sikhula, amabhizinisi kungenzeka andise utshalomali lwawo ezimpahleni ezinkulu (ezifana nemishini nezinto zokusebenza) ukuze ahlangabezane nezidingo zokukhiqiza zesikhathi esizayo.

Isisheshisi sisebenza ngesisekelo sokuthi amabhizinisi alungisa isitoko sawo esikhulu ukuze aphendule ezinguqukweni eziphumayo. Nansi indlela esebenza ngayo:

• Ushintsho Kwisidingo: Ake sithi isidingo sabathengi somkhiqizo sikhuphuka kakhulu. Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nalesi sidingo, izinkampani kungase kudingeke zandise amandla azo okukhiqiza, okudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe.
• Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Okubangelwayo:Isidingo sokukhushulwa kokukhiqiza siholela amafemu ukuthi atshale emishinini emisha, ezitshalweni, nasezinsizeni. Lapho isidingo sikhula ngokushesha, kudingeka ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe.
• Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kukhulisa Ukukhula:Lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kuholela ekuqashweni okuphezulu, imali engenayo, kanye nokukhiqiza, okubuye kwenyuse isidingo sezimpahla namasevisi. Kodwake, ngokungafani nesiphindaphindi, esiqhubeka ngeindefempeleni, umphumela wokusheshisa ungancipha lapho ukukhula kwesidingo kuncipha noma kuzinza.

Ifomula eyisisekelo yesisheshisi ithi:

Investment = v (ΔY)

Kuphi:

• ngokubheka iaccelerator coefficient (isilinganiso semali yesitoko kuya kokuphumayo.
• ΔYis ushintsho kokuphumayo (noma imali engenayo.

Ngakho, uma ushintsho olukhulu ekukhiqizweni, luyanda ukutshalwa kwezimali okudaliwe.

Umgomo wokusheshisa ubalulekile ekuchazeni ukuguquguquka kwezindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali kanye neqhaza lako ekuqhubeni imijikelezo yezomnotho. Njengoba ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzwela kakhulu ezinguqukweni ezifunwayo, ngisho nokwenyuka okuncane kokusetshenziswa kungaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kokutshalwa kwezimali. Ngokuphambene, ukwehla kwesidingo kungaholela ekwehleni okukhulu kokutshalwa kwezimali, kubhebhethekise ukwehla komnotho.

Umehluko Oyinhloko Phakathi Kokuphindaphinda Nokusheshisa

Naphezu kokubili kokuphindaphinda nesisheshisi kuhlobene nezinguquko ekuphumeni nasekufuneni, kunomehluko omkhulu ezindleleni zabo nasezindimeni zezomnotho. Ngezansi umehluko oyinhloko phakathi kwemiqondo emibili:

IMultiplier:Imultiplier isho umphumela wokwenyuka kokuqala kwemali okuholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kweholo lezwe lonke ngokusebenzisa imizuliswano elandelanayo yokusetshenziswa.

Isisheshisi:Isisheshisi sisho inqubo lapho izinguquko kokuphumayo (noma isidingo) ziholela ekutshalweni kwezimali ezimpahleni ezinkulu ukuze kwandiswe umthamo wokukhiqiza.

IMultiplier: Umphumela wokuphindaphinda ubangelwaukwenyuka kokuqala kokusetshenziswa kwemali okuzimele, njengokuchitha kukahulumeni, ukutshalwa kwezimali, noma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Lokhu kusetshenziswa kwemali kudala imali engenayo, okubuye ikhuthaze ukusetshenziswa kwemali okwengeziwe.

IAccelerator:Umphumela wokusheshisa ubangelwaushintsho lwezinga lokukhula kwesidingo. Igcizelela ubudlelwano phakathi kokukhula kwesidingo kanye nezinga lokutshalwa kwezimali.

IMultiplier: Isiphindaphindi sithinta kakhuluukusetshenziswa. Igqamisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa okunyukile (noma ukusetshenziswa kwemali) kwanda kanjani emnothweni, okuholela emalini engenayo kanye nomphumela okhuphukayo.

Isisheshisi:Isisheshisi sigxileekutshaleni imali. Ibonisa ukuthi izinguquko esilinganisweni sokukhula zinxenxa kanjani amabhizinisi ukuthi atshale ezimpahleni ezinkulu.

IMultiplier:Inqubo yokuphindaphinda yenzeka esikhathini eside, njengoba imithelela yokwenyuka kokuqala kokusetshenziswa kwemali isabalala emnothweni ezikhathini eziningi.

Isishicileli:Umphumela wokusheshisa ungaba ngokushesha futhi ubonakale ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, njengoba amafemu elungisa utshalomali lwawo ngokushesha ukuze aphendule izinguquko ezidingekayo.

Okuphindaphindayo:Enqubweni yokuphindaphinda, ukunyuka kwemali (izindleko ezizenzakalelayo) kuholela ekwenyukeni kwemali engenayo kanye nephumayo.

Isishicileli:Kumodeli yesisheshisi, ukwanda kokuphumayo kuholela ekutshalweni kwezimali okuphezulu, okungase kukhulise okukhiphayo.

IMultiplier: Umphumela wokuphindaphinda uvame ukuzinza uma ukunyuka kokuqala kwezindleko kusebenza ngomnotho, nakuba umthelela wakho ungaqhubeka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Isishicileli:Umphumela wokusheshisa ungaholela ekuguquguqukeni okugqame kakhulu, njengoba utshalomali luzwela kakhulu ezinguqukweni zokukhula kwesidingo. Uma ukukhula kwesidingo kuncipha, ukutshalwa kwezimali kungase kwehle kakhulu, okuholela ekuntengantengeni komnotho.

Ukusebenzelana Phakathi Kokuphindaphinda Nokusheshisa

Ngenkathi isiphindaphinda nesisheshisi kuyimiqondo ehlukile, ngokuvamile kuvame ukusebenzisana emnothweni wangempela, kukhulise imiphumela yokunye. Lokhu kusebenzisana kungaholela ekushintsheni okuphawulekayo emisebenzini yezomnotho kanye nemijikelezo yebhizinisi.

Isibonelo, ukwenyuka kokuqala kwezindleko zikahulumeni (umphumela wokuphindaphinda) kungase kuholele ekusetshenzisweni okuphezulu, okuphakamisa isidingo sempahla. Njengoba isidingo sikhula, amabhizinisi angase aphendule ngokutshala imali entsha (umphumela wokusheshisa) ukuze ahlangabezane nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo. Lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okungase kukhulise imali engenayo kanye nomphumela, okuholela komunye umjikelezo wemiphumela yokuphindaphinda. Ukusebenzisana phakathi kwalezi zinqubo ezimbili kungakha imultiplieraccelerator model, echaza ukuthi izinguquko ezincane kangakanani ekusetshenzisweni kwemali okuzimele noma isidingo zingaholela ekuguquguqukeni okukhulu komkhiqizo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali.

Kodwake, lokhu kusebenzisana kungase futhi kube nomthelela ekungazinzini komnotho. Uma ukukhula kwesidingo kuncipha noma kuma, amabhizinisi angase anciphise ukutshalwa kwezimali kakhulu, okuholela ekwehleni kweholo, umkhiqizo, kanye nokuqashwa. Ezimweni ezinjalo, umphumela wokusheshisa ungakhulisa umthelela omubi wesidingo esincishisiwe, okungase kuholele ekuwohlokeni komnotho.

Ingqikithi Yomlando Yokuphindaphinda Nesisheshisi

Umphumela wemultiplierwaduma nguJohn Maynard Keynes ngesikhathi sokudangala okukhulu ngeminyaka yawo1930s njengengxenyeyethiyori yakhe yenguquko yezomnotho echazwe kuTheory General of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Ngaphambi kukaKeynes, osomnotho bakudala babekholelwa kakhulu ukuthi izimakethe zazizilawula ngokwazo nokuthi umnotho uzobuyela emsebenzini ogcwele ngaphandle kokungenelela kukahulumeni. UKeynes, nokho, waphawula imiphumela edabukisayo yokuntuleka kwemisebenzi okusabalele kanye nezinsiza ezingase zisetshenziswe kahle ngesikhathi Sokudangala futhi wathi ohulumeni kudingeka babambe iqhaza elibonakalayo ekusimamiseni umnotho.

UKeynes waphikisa ngokuthi ukwehla kwesidingo sezinkampani ezizimele sezimpahla namasevisi kungase kubangele ukwehla kwezomnotho isikhathi eside, njengoba amafemu ehlisa ukukhiqiza, adiliza abasebenzi, futhi anciphise notshalomali. Umphumela waba ukuwohloka kokwehla kwemali engenayo, umkhiqizo, nokuqashwa. Ukunqanda lokhu, uKeynes uhlongoze ukuthi ohulumeni banyuse ukusetshenziswa kwemali komphakathi ukuze bavuse isidingo futhi baqale umnotho. Umqondo wokuphindaphinda waba umqoka kule mpikiswano, obonisa ukuthi ukunyuka kokuqala kwezindleko zikahulumeni kungaba nomthelela omkhulu, ofana neripple emnothweni wonke.

Imultiplieris akukona nje ukwakhiwa kwetiyori; kube nesandla ekubumbeni inqubomgomo yesimanje yezezimali. Ngezikhathi zokuwohloka komnotho, ohulumeni bavame ukusebenzisa amaphakheji okuvuselela ezezimali okuhloswe ngawo ukukhulisa isidingo nomphumela. Lokhu kusekelwe enkolelweni yokuthi umphumela wokuphindaphinda ungakhulisa umthelela wokusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni, ukhuphule umsebenzi wezomnotho uwonke futhi usize ukuphakamisa umnotho ekuwohlokeni.

Umgomo weTheaccelerator, ngakolunye uhlangothi, unezimpande zawo kumibono yezomnotho yangaphambili yeinvestment and growth, ikakhulukazi imisebenzi yosomnotho abafana noThomas MalthusandJohn Stuart Mill. Kodwake, yenziwa ngokusemthethweni ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama20 ngosomnotho abafana noAlbert Aftaliona kanye noJohn Maurice Clark. Ithiyori yeaccelerator ibifuna ukuchaza ukuthi kungani ukutshalwa kwezimali, okuwumgogodla wokukhula komnotho, kuguquguquke kakhulu phakathi nemijikelezo yezomnotho.

Umgomo weTheaccelerator ekuqaleni waqanjwa njengempendulo yokuguquguquka okuphawuliwe kokutshalwa kwezimali okuhlobene nezinye izingxenye zesidingo esihlanganisiwe. Nakuba ukusetshenziswa kuvame ukushintsha kancane kancane ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzwela kakhulu ekuguquguqukeni kwezimo zomnotho. Ithiyori yeaccelerator iphakamisa ukuthi ngisho nezinguquko ezincane ezilinganisweni zokukhula kwesidingo sezimpahla nezinsizakalo zingaholela ezinguqukweni ezinkulu ekusetshenzisweni kwezimali, njengoba amafemu efuna ukwandisa noma inkontileka amandla azo okukhiqiza ukuze ahlangabezane nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo.

Iaccelerator ibe yingxenye ebalulekile yamamodeli asekuqaleni okukhula komnotho nentuthuko. Kuphinde kwaba nesandla ekuthuthukisweni kwethiyori yomjikelezo webhizinisi, ozama ukuchaza izigaba eziphindaphindayo zokunwetshwa nokuncipha emsebenzini wezomnotho. Ukuzwela kokutshalwa kwezimali ezinguqukweni ekukhuleni kwesidingo, njengoba kuvezwe yiaccelerator, kunikeze incazelo ezwakalayo yokuntengantenga komnotho wonxiwankulu.

Izicelo Zokuphindaphinda Nesisheshisi Kunqubomgomo Yezomnotho

Umqondo wokuphindaphinda ubalulekile kunqubomgomo yezimali yesimanje yezingxoxo, ikakhulukazi kumongo wokuwohloka komnotho kanye nokusimama. Ohulumeni bavamise ukusebenzisa amathuluzi enqubomgomo yezimali, njengokunyuswa kwezindleko zomphakathi noma ukuncishiswa kwentela, ukuze bakhuthaze ukufunwa nokuphumayo okuhlanganisiwe. Umphumela wokuphindaphinda uphakamisa ukuthi ukunyuka kokuqala kwezindleko zikahulumeni kungaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kweholo lezwe lonke ngokusebenzisa imizuliswano elandelanayo yokusetshenziswa.

Isibonelo, phakathi nenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba yango2008, ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke basebenzise amaphakheji okuvuselela ezezimali okuhloswe ngawo ukulwa nokwehla okukhulu kwesidingo semboni ezimele. EUnited States, iAmerican Recovery and Reinvestment Act ka2009yayingesinye sezibonelo ezivelele zokuvuselela kwezimali okuklanyelwe ukusizakala ngomphumela wokuphindaphinda. Umgomo wawuwukufaka imali emnothweni ngokusebenzisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni kumaphrojekthi wengqalasizinda, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo, imfundo, nezinye izinsiza zikahulumeni, okuzobuye kudale amathuba emisebenzi, kwandise imali engenayo, futhi kukhuphule isidingo sisonke.

Usayizi wemultiplieris ukucatshangelwa okubalulekile ekuklameni inqubomgomo yezimali. Uma isiphindaphinda sisikhulu, khonake ukukhuthazwa kwezimali kungaba nomthelela omkhulu ekuphumeni kwezomnotho nasekuqashweni. Kodwake, usayizi wesiphindaphinda awushintshi futhi ungahluka kuye ngezinto ezihlukahlukene, ezihlanganisa:

• IMarginal Propensity to Consume (MPC):Uma iMPC iphakeme, iMPC iba nkulu, isiphindaphindayo, njengoba kusetshenziswa imali eningi yedola ngayinye eyengeziwe kunokuba ilondolozwe.
• Isimo Somnotho:Isiphindaphinda sivame ukuba sikhulu ngezikhathi zokuntuleka kwemisebenzi okuphezulu, njengoba izinsiza ezingasebenzi zingase zisetshenziswe kalula. Ngokuphambene, ngezikhathi zokuqashwa ngokugcwele, umphumela wokuphindaphinda ungaba mncane, njengoba isidingo esikhulayo singaholela emananini aphezulu (ukwehla kwamandla emali) kunalokho t.han okukhiphayo okuphezulu.
• Ukuvuleka Komnotho: Emnothweni ovulekile onohwebo olubalulekile, esinye sesidingo esikhulayo esidalwa ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kukahulumeni singase sivuze siye kwamanye amazwe ngendlela yokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, sinciphise usayizi wokuphindaphinda kwasekhaya.

Nakuba isiphindaphinda ngokuvamile sihlotshaniswa nenqubomgomo yezimali, umgomo weaccelerator uhlobene kakhulu nenqubomgomo yokutshalwa kwezimalikanye nendima yokutshalwa kwezimali kwemboni ezimele ekuqhubekiseni ukukhula komnotho. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kungenye yezingxenye eziguquguqukayo kakhulu zesidingo esihlanganisiwe, futhi ukuqonda izici ezithonya izinqumo zokutshalwa kwezimali kubalulekile ekuzinzeni komnotho.

Ohulumeni bangaba nomthelela ekutshalweni kwezimali ngamathuluzi enqubomgomo ahlukahlukene, afana nalawa:

• Inqubomgomo Yesilinganiso Senzalo: Amazinga enzalo aphansi angakhuthaza ukutshalwa kwezimali ngokunciphisa izindleko zokuboleka, kuyilapho amanani aphezulu angadambisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ngokwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu.
• Inqubomgomo Yentela:Izisusa zentela, ezifana nokwehla kwenani okusheshisiwe noma izikweletu zentela yotshalozimali, zingakhuthaza amafemu ukuthi atshale ezimpahleni ezintsha ezinkulu.
• Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Komphakathi: Ohulumeni bangakwazi futhi ukuzibandakanya ekutshalweni kwezimali komphakathi kwingqalasizinda, imfundo, kanye nobuchwepheshe, okungagcwala ukutshalwa kwezimali kwangasese ngokwandisa ukukhiqiza kwezimali zemboni ezimele.

Umgomo wokusheshisa uphakamisa ukuthi izinguquko ekukhuleni kwesidingo zingaholela kushintsho olukhulu ekutshalweni kwezimali. Isibonelo, uma uhulumeni eshaya izinqubomgomo ezikhuthaza ukufunwa kwezimpahla namasevisi (njengokukhuthazwa kwezimali), amafemu angase aphendule ngokukhulisa utshalomali lwazo emishinini emisha namathuluzi ukuze kwandiswe amandla azo okukhiqiza. Lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okudaliwe kungathuthukisa umphumela wezomnotho, kudale iloop yempendulo eyakhayo.

Enye yezinto ezinamandla kakhulu zemigomo yemultiplierandaccelerator yikhono layo lokuqinisana ekuqhubekiseni ukukhula komnotho. Lokhu kusebenzisana kuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi imultiplieraccelerator model, echaza ukuthi izinguquko ezincane ekusetshenzisweni kwemali okuzimele noma isidingo zingaholela kanjani ekuguquguqukeni okukhulu kokuphumayo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali.

Isibonelo, cabanga ngesimo lapho uhulumeni enyusa imali yakhe kumaphrojekthi wengqalasizinda. Lokhu kwenyuka kokuqala kwezindleko kudala umphumela wokuphindaphindeka, njengoba amafemu okwakha abandakanyekayo kumaphrojekthi ekhokha amaholo kubasebenzi, nabo abasebenzisa imali yabo ezimpahleni nasezinkonzweni. Njengoba isidingo sezimpahla namasevisi sikhula, amabhizinisi angase athole ukuthi adinga ukwandisa umthamo wawo wokukhiqiza ukuze ahlangabezane nalesi sidingo esisha. Lokhu kuholela ekutshalweni kwezimali okuhehayo, njengoba amafemu etshala imali ezimpahleni ezintsha (ezifana nemishini nezimboni. Umphumela ubaumphumela weaccelerator wesibili, okwandisa nakakhulu umkhiqizo nemali engenayo.

Inhlanganisela yesiphindaphindi nesisheshisi ingakha umjikelezo onamandla wokukhula komnotho. Kodwake, lokhu kusebenzisana kungaholela emijikelezweni enonya phakathi nokuwohloka komnotho. Uma ukukhula kwesidingo kuncipha noma kuma, amafemu angase anciphise ukutshalwa kwezimali, okuholela emalini engenayo kanye nomphumela ophansi, okubuye kunciphise isidingo nakakhulu. Lokhu kungadala ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali, okuphumayo, nokuqashwa, kubhebhethekise imiphumela yokuwohloka komnotho.

Imikhawulo kanye Nezingqinamba Zokuphindaphinda Nesisheshisi

Nakuba amamultiplierandaaccelerators imiqondo enamandla, ayikho ngaphandle kwemikhawulo nokugxeka. Ukuqonda le mikhawulo kubalulekile ekuhloleni ukusebenza kwayo ekuhlaziyeni umnotho nasekuklanyweni kwenqubomgomo.

• Ukuqagela kweConstant MPC:Isiphindaphinda sithatha ukuthiimarginal propensity to consume(MPC) ihlala injalo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Nokho, empeleni, iMPC ingahluka kuye ngezinto ezihlukahlukene, njengamazinga emali engenayo, ukuzethemba kwabathengi, nokulindelwe ngezimo zomnotho zesikhathi esizayo. Uma abathengi bengenathemba kakhulu ngekusasa, bangase bakhethe ukonga imali yabo eningi, okwehlisa ukusebenza kahle kwesiphindaphinda.
• Ukuvuza Kokugeleza Kwendilinga:Umphumela wokuphindaphinda uthatha ukuthi yonke imali engenayo etholakala ekwenyukeni kokuqala kokusetshenziswa kwemali iphinde isetshenziswe ngaphakathi komnotho wasekhaya. Eqinisweni, enye yalemali engenayo ingase “ivuze” emnothweni ngendlela yesavings, izintela, noma ukuthenga kwamanye amazwe, kunciphise usayizi wesiphindaphindi. Isibonelo, emnothweni ovulekile onohwebo olubalulekile, ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kungase kuholele ekuthengisweni okuphezulu kwamanye amazwe, okuzuzisa abakhiqizi bangaphandle kunezinkampani zasekhaya.
• ICrowding Out:Ukugxeka okuvamile kokusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni njengethuluzi lokuvuselela ukuthi kungaholela ecrowding out, lapho ukusetshenziswa kwemali okwenyuka kukahulumeni kususa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezinkampani ezizimele. Lokhu kungenzeka uma ukuboleka kukahulumeni kukhuphula izinga lenzalo, okwenza kubize kakhulu kumafemu azimele ukuboleka nokutshala imali. Uma ukuminyana kwenzeka, thumthelela wensalela wokuvuselela kwezimali ungase ube mncane kunokulindelekile.
• Izingcindezi ZeInflationary: Umphumela wokuphindaphinda uthatha ukuthi ukunyuka kwesidingo kuholela ekwenyukeni komkhiqizo. Nokho, uma umnotho ususebenza ngokugcwele noma eduze nomthamo ogcwele, isidingo esengeziwe singase siholele einflationkunokuba umkhiqizo ukhushulwe. Ezimweni ezinjalo, isiphindaphinda singase sibe sincane, njengoba amanani aphezulu eqeda amandla okuthenga abathengi.

• Ukuqagelwa Kwesilinganiso Sokukhipha Imali Engaguquki:Isisheshisi sithatha ubudlelwano obugxilile phakathi kwezinga lokuphumayo kanye nenani lemali edingekayo ukuze sisikhiqize. Kodwake, empeleni, amafemu angalungisa izilinganiso zecapitaloutput ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ikakhulukazi ekuphenduleni izinguquko kubuchwepheshe noma amanani entengo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ubudlelwano phakathi kwezinguquko ekukhiqizweni nasekutshalweni kwezimali kungenzeka bungaqondile njengoba kushiwo isisheshi.
• Ukuguquguquka Kokutshalwa Kwezimali:Omunye wemininingwane ebalulekile yesisheshisi ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzwela kakhulu ezinguqukweni zokukhula kwesidingo. Nakuba lokhu kungachaza ukuntengantenga kokutshalwa kwezimali ngesikhathi sokukhula komnotho kanye nokusabalala, kungenza futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kube nzima ukubikezela. Uma amafemu eba nethemba ngokwedlulele ngezikhathi zokukhula ngokushesha, angase atshale imali ngokweqile, okuholela kumthamo oweqile kanye nokwehla okukhulu ekutshalweni kwezimali lapho isidingo sincipha.
• Iqhaza Elilinganiselwe Lokulindelwe:Imodeli yokusheshisa evamile igxile ebudlelwaneni phakathi kwezinguquko kokuphumayo notshalomali, kodwa yehlisa indimaokulindelekileezinqumweni zokutshala izimali. Eqinisweni, amafemu enza izinqumo zokutshala izimali ngokusekelwe kulokho abakulindele mayelana nesidingo sesikhathi esizayo, amanani enzalo, kanye nenzuzo. Lokhu okulindelekile kungathonywa yizinto eziningi ezahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ukuzinza kwezepolitiki, uguquko kwezobuchwepheshe, kanye nezimo zomnotho zomhlaba.
• Ukuntengantenga Kwezomnotho: Nakuba isisheshisi singasiza ukuchaza ukuguquguquka kwezomnotho, singase sibe nomthelelaekungazinzini komnotho. Uma amafemu esekela izinqumo zawo zokutshala izimali kuphela ezinguqukweni zesikhathi esifushane ezifunwayo, angase agcine etshale imali ngokweqile ngesikhathi sokuchuma kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okuncane ngesikhathi sokushintshashintsha, okwenza isimo somnotho sibe sibi nakakhulu.

Izinhlelo zokusebenza Zesimanje Zesiphindaphinda Nesisheshisi

Umqondo wokuphindaphinda ufakwe kumamodeli wesimanje wezomnotho omkhulu, ikakhulukazi amamodeli weKeynesianandNew Keynesian. Lawa mamodeli agcizelela indima yesidingo esihlanganisiwe ekunqumeni umkhiqizo nomsebenzi, futhi ukuphindaphinda kuyindlela eyinhloko lapho izinguquko kunqubomgomo yezimali zithinta umnotho.

Kumamodeli amasha weKeynesian, isiphindaphindi sivame ukuhlanganiswa nezinye izici, ezifanaamanani anamathelayokanyenokuqina komholo, ukuchaza ukuthi kungani umnotho ungabuyeli emsebenzini ogcwele. ngokuzenzakalelayo. Isiphindaphinda siphinde sisetshenziselwe ukuhlola ukusebenza kahle kwenqubomgomo yezimali neyezimali ekusimamiseni umnotho ngesikhathi sokwehla komnotho.

Isisheshisi sihlala siwumqondo obalulekile kumamodeliokuziphatha kokutshalwa kwezimalikanyenemijikelezo yebhizinisi. Amamodeli esimanje ngokuvamile ahlanganisa iaccelerator kanye nezinye izici, ezifanaamazinga enzalo,okulindelekile, kanye noushintsho lwezobuchwepheshe, ukuchaza ukushintshashintsha kokutshalwa kwezimali.p>

Isibonelo, ithiyori kaTheTobin q yokutshalwa kwezimali yakhela kusisheshisi ngokugcizelela indima yenani lemakethe lamafemu ngokuhlobene nezindleko zokushintsha imali. Lapho amanani emakethe amafemu ephezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezindleko zemali, kungenzeka ukuthi atshale imali, akhulise umphumela wokusheshisa. Ngokufanayo, ithiyori yezinketho zangempela iphakamisa ukuthi amafemu angabambezela ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindaweni ezingaqinisekile, alungise indlela evamile yokusheshisa.

Isiphetho

Imultiplierandacceleratorihlala iyimiqondo eyisisekelo ekuqondeni ukuguquguquka kokukhula komnotho, ukutshalwa kwezimali, nemijikelezo yebhizinisi. Nakuba ukuphindaphinda kugcizelela indima yokusetshenziswa kanye nezindleko zikahulumeni ekuqhubekiseni umphumela womnotho, ukusheshisa kugxile ekuzweleni kokutshalwa kwezimali ezinguqukweni zokukhula kwesidingo. Yomibili le mibono ibe nesandla ekubumbeni ithiyori yezomnotho kanye nenqubomgomo, ikakhulukazi kumongo wenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nenqubomgomo yokutshalwa kwezimali.

Naphezu kokulinganiselwa nokugxeka, isiphindaphindi nesisheshisi siyaqhubeka nokubamba iqhaza elibalulekile ekuhlaziyeni umnotho omkhulu wesimanje. Ngokuqonda ukuthi lezi zindlela ezimbili zisebenzisana kanjani, abakhi bezinqubomgomo bangaklama kangcono amasu okuthuthukisa ukuzinza kwezomnotho, ukukhula, kanye nokusimama, ikakhulukazi ngezikhathi zokuwohloka komnotho. Njengoba umnotho uqhubeka nokuthuthuka, imininingwane ehlinzekwa yisiphindaphindi nesisheshisi izohlala ingamathuluzi abalulekile okuzulazula esimweni sezomnotho esiyinkimbinkimbi nesishintsha njalo.